S
Sanguinius
Guest
Aazealh said:Yeah, that was pretty much my point (and not that economics is wrong, whatever that means). You can have a successful model and yet it will fail to predict an event simply because too many independent factors can influence the outcome.
I don't really want to get into something of an abstract debate on what science is or anything but if you have a model and claim it shows what happens in the real world and then it doesn't do so as ther're factors infulencing the outcome outside of what the model shows, then it's quite simply wrong. What you're thinking of is probably some model you've seen showing what happens when you alter 1 variable, but for those you need to know that it's implicit that they assume everything else remains the same or ceteris paribus as is usually said. It's not meant to show what's happening with any particular real world event, it's meant to establish general rules on what effect a particular variable has but when analysing real world scenarios more than a single model is required. Also, it's not generally understood but even the models people generally see are a simplified version of the theory as pictographic model's cannot totally incapulsate the ideas expressed within economics. I would recommend watching that video series I added before to get a very good insight into the heart of economics.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=24nVarM20KQ