With 30 days until Nov. 4, Karl Rove projects that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would get at least 273 electoral votes – three more than are needed to win – if the presidential election were held today.
Vampire_Hunter_Bob said:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl78
Griffith said:http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/10/mccain.crowd/index.html
At a rally in Minnesota on Friday, a woman told McCain: "I don't trust Obama. I have read about him and he's an Arab."
And at a McCain rally in New Mexico on Monday, one supporter yelled out "terrorist" when McCain asked, "Who is the real Barack Obama?"
Griffith said:http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/10/mccain.crowd/index.html
Scary stuff, it's gotten to the point McCain pretty much had to come out and defend Obama today. That's the razor's edge you walk though when you play on the fear, ignorance, and prejudice of the mob. I find it fasicnating because I truly believe McCain is uncomfortable with this sort of slime, but he has no chance if he doesn't basically rally everyone's inner bigot.
Vampire_Hunter_Bob said:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl78
McCain just lost the astrologist demographic.
Aazealh said:I was actually laughing at this until the sadness of it all hit me. And to know that McCain's reasonable responses are met with booing is indeed scary. I honestly feel bad for him.
Former Michigan Gov. William Milliken, a Republican, told the Grand Rapids Press he was "disappointed in the tenor and the personal attacks on the part of the McCain campaign."
"He is not the McCain I endorsed," Milliken said Thursday.
One member of the Palin audience in Jacksonville, Florida, Tuesday shouted out "treason." And at another rally in the state Monday, Palin's mention of the Obama-Ayers tie caused one member to yell out: "kill him" -- though it was unclear if it was targeted at Obama or Ayers.
At several recent rallies, Palin has stirred up crowds by mentioning the "liberal media." Routinely, there are boos at every mention of The New York Times and the "mainstream media," both of which are staples of Palin's stump speech.
Some audience members are openly hostile to members of the traveling press covering Palin; one crowd member hurled a racial epithet at an African-American member of the press in Clearwater, Florida, on Monday.
Supporters had shouted "terrorist" and "off with his head" at the mention of Obama's connections to former Weather Underground member William Ayers, whose group bombed federal buildings in protest of the Vietnam War when Obama was a child.
Unhelpful for establishing the tone McCain sought in Davenport was the Rev. Arnold Conrad, past pastor of the Grace Evangelical Free Church. His prayer before McCain arrived at the convention center blocks from the Mississippi River appeared to dismiss faiths other than Christianity and cast the election as a referendum on God himself.
"I would also pray, Lord, that your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their god — whether its Hindu, Buddha, Allah — that his opponent wins, for a variety of reasons," Conrad said.
"And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they're going to think that their god is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and Election Day," he said.
A McCain town hall in Wisconsin on Thursday was also noticeable for its angry crowd. But a rally in the state on Friday -- before he moved on to Minnesota -- was more subdued.
The only incident was an Obama supporter shouting "Liar!" as McCain accused his rival of planning massive new taxes. McCain loyalists drowned her out chanting "U-S-A, U-S-A."
"And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they're going to think that their god is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and Election Day," he said.
Vampire_Hunter_Bob said:http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/barack-osama-pr.html
Ahuh, so typo?
Sanguinius said:On this matter though does anyone know what % of the electorate has already voted?
Griffith said:I haven't been able to find that exact information either, though I've read estimates that when all is said and done 25-30% of the electorate could have already voted before the election. That's taking into account that so many new registries can take advantage of early voting methods, basically making it so you can register/vote in one step. I'll just be going to the local church where I usually vote. Anyway, this site has a lot of information strewn about, including that an Ohio poll indicating that 12% of those surveyed had already voted.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Here are a couple of other maps, like the one above, the yahoo map is based on poll averages, in this case from Real Clear Politics, and the CNN map is based on polling, voting trends, and ad spending, making it either that much more accurate or that much more muddled. In any case, it's much closer, which is probably more realistic.
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/index.html
Sanguinius said:Much Closer? All of them seem to be saying that Obama will win hands down and that the Dem's will sweep the Senate.
Sanguinius said:So pretty much what I was expecting, with all my "pendulum politics" talk, that Bush will crush Republican dominance and replace it with Democratic dominance, only it seems their dominance will be even more overwheming.
Sanguinius said:In De Facto terms it is looking as if there won't be an opposition to Democrat control for at least 2 years, "God" save us all.
Griffith said:Sorry, I meant the CNN map, taking into account previous voting trends and spending, has it much closer than the ones based on polling alone, which obviously favor Obama.
I think you should seriously consider writing such passages in the third person for added effect, for example: "So pretty much what Sanguinius was expecting, with all Sanguinius' "pendulum politics" talk..." =)
Next to the senator's image was a bucket of fried chicken, a slab of ribs, a slice of watermelon and a pitcher of Kool-Aid. Diane Fedele, the organization's president, took responsibility for the image and apologized "if it offended anyone."
She meant it "to represent food, nothing else. I'm not a racist.
Griffith said:Those can't be prophetic warnings, most of them are already happening.
Griffith said:Whether that comes to pass or not, the problem is I'm in no way way convinced John McCain's election would lessen the chances. Your confidence non-withstanding, these things are rather volatile and by nature unpredictable, so while facing those problems anyway, and taking into account McCain could still screw things up with the Dems and well as Obama, I'd prefer to take the other known advantages of an Obama administration over the disadvantages of McCain/Palin and vice versa.
Also, Obama's plans are all based on what's best said while he's running for President, they don't really affect my thinking any more than I'm sure McCain's mortgage proposal affects yours. Considering we're both looking at this from somewhat outside the lines, your statement puts far too much faith in Obama; personally, I wouldn't trust a word he says. =)
Sanguinius said:Economics is a science, if A & B cause C then A & B cause C whatever country it is in, whatever time it is in. It's "volatility" is merely the interaction of many forces, it's not volatile in the sense of being random.
Aazealh said:It's a social science. Like Psychology. I think it's clear that the many factors influencing trends and events are what Griffith was talking about when he mentioned volatility. Theory is one thing, but in actuality we all know it's not as easy as ABC.
Sanguinius said:The ABC analogy is of course a simplified version, as there're about 6.7 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population) Billion ABC's.